Can software beat online poker? A theoretical exploration

This article explores a question many ask themselves: could a computer program be designed to consistently win at online poker? This article examines the technical challenges and potential components of such a system. Which features must an app/program/code have to succeed?

The game can be divided into two parts from this perspective:

Playing the cards: starting hand ranges, calculate odds and from that launch fold/call/raise actions instructions.
Playing the player: stats about opponents and exploit things such as betting patterns.

Obviously the first part it’s the easiest. This can be done in a high degree mechanically while the second part is harder to implement in program because the information is much wider and also of a more dynamic character.

Disclaimer: Please remember that using software to gain an unfair advantage in online poker is against the terms of service and could have serious consequences. This article is for theoretical purposes only.

The challenge of online poker

Ok, let’s begin with some basic facts to establish what the conditions are to begin with. Poker is, as you probably know, a complex game of incomplete information. Unlike chess, where all the pieces are visible, you only see your own cards and the community cards. To consistently win (that is make a positive result in the long run), a program would need to accomplish one or more of these tasks:

Calculating the odds of winning with different hands, considering the community cards and potential opponent holdings.
Understanding how different players tend to bet and bluff in various situations.
Choosing the best action (fold, call, raise) based on the calculated probabilities and opponent models.

These are essential features of a poker-winning program. And probably all these tasks must be fulfilled in some way. A software would not produce winning poker barely from doing some parts absolutely right. Choosing the right starting hands is a fundamental ingredient, but not enough to guarantee mission complete.

But let's continue with the listed categories and imagine the features such a hypothetically program would need in a more concrete form and the obstacles that come with each.

Starting hand range analyzer

The program needs a database of optimal starting hand ranges for different game types and positions at the table. It would compare your hand to these ranges to determine its initial strength. This could be done by using starting hand charts and would also allow for some possibly option for playing styles (e.g. TAG, LAG) if wanted.

Odds calculator

The program should be able to calculate the odds of winning (your "equity") at every stage of the hand, considering all possible opponent holdings. Since its not allowed to software that track the cards in real time (only exporting hand history for post-analysis) a problem is get around this one. The only solution may be that the user manually “input” (tell the software which his starting hand and the community cards are) to get any “output” (the instructions from the software based on the situation).

Opponent profiler

This is where things get problematic. You can’t really beat the game without “playing the player” in some degree. The program would therefore have to track opponent actions and collects data to build some statistics. Anyone familiar with HUD:s will recognize features such as:

VPIP (Voluntarily Put Money In Pot): How often they enter a pot pre-flop.
PFR (Pre-Flop Raise): How often they raise pre-flop.
3-Bet Frequency: How often they re-raise pre-flop.
Aggression Factor: A measure of their overall betting aggression.

By analyzing these stats, the program could categorize opponents and adjust its strategy accordingly. The problem is, of course, how this should be done (HUD:s is not allowed anymore).

Action recommendations

Based on starting hand range analyze, odds calculating and opponent profiler, the program would recommend the optimal action. The actions are primarily:

Fold: If the odds are unfavorable.
Call: If the odds justify staying in the hand and see the next card.
Bet/raise: To extract value from weaker hands.

While the diversity of action is pretty obvious, the hard problem is how to “feed” the program with enough information and sort out action ways.

Artificial intelligence?

We could of hardly get away from this possibility these days. The idea of beating online poker with AI was probably born not long after artificial intelligence technology began to the common knowledge.

The advantages with AI in this fields are many. It gives possibilities to adaptive learning. The program could fast learn fundamental strategy and when get even better by learning from its past experiences. It would track the results of its decisions and adjust its strategies over time to improve its win rate.

It AI allowed when playing online poker? This was meant as a joke – you probably know the answer. It is, obviously, not allowed if it give the players any advantage.

AI has been used, though. Suspected involvement of AI in has been the subject of several news related to online poker. And, most likely, AI as a tool for get an advantage in poker will be an increased issue.

Ethical and legal considerations

It's crucial to point out that developing and using such a program that has been discussed could be ethically questionable and potentially illegal. It not obvious where to draw the line. Evpoker.org offer a poker tool (Poker Servant), designed for increase your results and it could be argued that this is cheating. In this case, though, the assistance it on a fundamental level. And although it could help some players to better result, it is very far from create a sure win.

Poker Servant can’t be detected by the online poker client since the player has to manually do the input. Otherwise, online poker sites have sophisticated methods for detecting programs and bots.

Using software to gain an unfair advantage could be considered cheating and Evpoker.org fully agree with that. The content of the site is to 99% about strategies and informative subject about poker. The Poker Servant is a toll that can be used as a compliment, but it won’t replace solid knowledge of strategy.

Conclusion

While theoretically possible to create a program that could win at online poker, the challenges are immense. The program would need to be incredibly sophisticated to give the player a serious edge. This exploration is intended to be a thought experiment, not a guide to cheating. Remember, the best way to win at poker is through practice and a deep understanding of the game.

Written by Oscar Sand